On September 9th, the Algerian authorities have stated they are set to provide all kind of humanitarian aid, in solidarity with the Moroccan people, in case Morocco requested so, amid the violent earthquake that struck parts of the Kingdom and was felt by a number of neighboring countries, such as Algeria, Mauritania, and Spain. Moreover, the Algerian authorities decided to open the country's airspace to flights transporting humanitarian aid and injured.
This decision by Algeria to open its airspace with Morocco comes during a period of tense relations between the two countries, as Algeria severed its diplomatic relations with Morocco in August 2021, with accusations leveled against Morocco, some of which related to spying and support for separatists involved in forest fires in some Algerian states, which was followed by Algeria closing its airspace to Moroccan military and civil aviation since September 2021.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/812
On July 17, 2023, the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, announced the suspension of Russia's participation in the Black Sea grain export agreement, citing noncompliance with the agreement's provisions regarding the obstruction of Russia's exports. Russia's withdrawal caused a 2.73% increase in US wheat futures prices on the same day. The move was followed by an air strike on the Odessa region, which exports Ukrainian grains from the port, as part of the escalation against Ukraine and pressure on Western countries to return to the negotiating table to reactivate the grain agreement, but on Russian terms.
The reactivation of the agreement is expected to be a priority for the international community as it has implications for both developed and developing countries alike and impacts global food security. Failure to extend the agreement could lead to a new shock to the global economy, particularly affecting developing countries that are food importers and those facing internal conflicts. It is not unlikely that the agreement could be expanded to include other provisions to ensure the continuity of critical facilities responsible for food production and export in Ukraine while easing obstacles to Russian exports, thereby enhancing global food security. Failure to reach an agreement could result in increased polarization and a shift in the patterns of international relations.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/796
Benedict Oramah, the President of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), expects that between 15 and 20 countries will join the African payment and settlement system by the end of this year, allowing them to abandon the use of the US dollar in their international transactions and instead use their local currencies. He also noted that nine countries have already registered in the new system.
This shift towards using local currencies is part of a global trend supported by major developing countries, such as Russia, China, and India, to settle financial transactions for trade in local currencies rather than the US dollar. This is in response to Moscow and Beijing's desire to reduce the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial market, and to address the depreciation of their national currencies against the dollar and the shortage of dollar liquidity. This trend may increase the demand for local currencies and lead to a crisis of import financing in many African countries. However, the US may try to obstruct this trend, and European countries have not officially declared their stance on the matter.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/784
The approval of the Iraqi budget has sparked objections from some parties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, with Masoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, citing the budget as "attempts to undermine the constitutional and financial entity of the region." Despite the budget's passage, there is growing controversy surrounding its provisions, particularly regarding Article 14, which governs the management of the region's oil funds and has raised concerns among some political forces in the Kurdistan Region. The ongoing lack of trust between the various parties in the region is likely to cast a shadow over the upcoming elections at the end of the year.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/783
On June 2, 2023, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2685 to extend the mandate of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) for six months until December 3, 2023. This decision reflects the international community's concern about the ongoing armed conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces militias and its repercussions on the political and security situations in Sudan and neighboring countries. The renewal of the mission's mandate also shows the United Nations' confidence in its envoy to Sudan, despite the Sudanese army's objections to the mission's head. The decision may lead to continued tension between the Sudanese authorities and the UN mission, and the Sudanese army may continue to pressure the UN to change the mission's structure.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/773
On May 30, 2023, the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court issued a ruling declaring the extension of the Kurdistan Parliament's term for an additional year unconstitutional. The Parliament had renewed its fifth term in 2022 by passing a law (Law No. 12 of 2022) that postponed the elections that were supposed to take place in October of that year due to political disputes between the two major parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, over how to divide the electoral districts. The Parliament then set the date for the elections to be held on November 18, 2023.
The Supreme Court's decision raises questions about the fate of many laws passed by the Parliament during that period and the legitimacy of the Kurdistan Regional Government itself. The ruling also exacerbates the already tense relationship between Erbil and Baghdad, particularly over issues such as Erbil's share in the Iraqi budget and its control over oil exploitation and export. The ruling is likely to cause a disruption in some of the issues of common interest between Baghdad and Erbil, such as Erbil's share in the federal budget. Although it is not expected that Baghdad will withdraw from consultations with Erbil over its share, the ruling may give Baghdad an advantage in protesting the current Parliament's legitimacy in negotiations on behalf of the region. The prominent forces in the region are expected to respect the court's ruling, especially with the upcoming elections approaching, although there may be efforts to bring forward the election date in the region.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/772
The United States and Saudi Arabia announced in a joint statement, on May 20, 2023, that representatives of the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces agreed to a one-week ceasefire, starting on May 22, provided that this agreement enters into force as soon as the parties sign it.
While the short-term cease-fire begins after forty-eight hours, and it may be renewed for a period to be agreed upon, and it ends in the event that it is not renewed. The agreement included a number of important clauses, most notably that the ceasefire could be extended with the consent of both parties. The main objective of this agreement is to achieve a short-term ceasefire, to facilitate the delivery of emergency humanitarian aid and the restoration of basic services. It is expected that Saudi Arabia and the United States will continue their pressure on both sides of the conflict to implement the ceasefire, and the coming period may witness intense movements by "Malik Aqar", Vice-President of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, both internally and externally, in an attempt to pressure rapid support for a permanent ceasefire. The role of "owner of property" is limited to political roles, not military ones.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/750
The Iraqi Prime Minister announced his intention to present the "Strategic Development Road" project to Iraq's regional partners in order to consolidate the prospects for regional economic cooperation and serve the interests of the countries and peoples of the region. The strategic development road project aims to link the port of Al-Faw with the Turkish borders and from there to Europe. In view of this, the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mr. “Muhammad Shia'a Al-Sudani”, announced Iraq's intention to present this project to become a regional project for Iraq's neighboring countries, and Iraq seeks to search for financing mostly from the Gulf countries . It is unlikely that the project will become the subject of enthusiasm for most of the regional countries for the length of the project's construction period, and most likely Turkey, Iran, and Syria will have reservations about such a project. It is likely that the project will gain momentum if China gets involved in it and finances it as part of the "Silk Road" project.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/748
Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan issued a decision on May 14, 2023, to freeze the accounts of the Rapid Support Forces and their companies in all Sudanese banks and their branches abroad, which means preventing the disbursement of any financial dues or budgets allocated to them, and Al-Burhan directed the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning and the Bank of Sudan (the Central Bank) to “put the decision into practice.” The issuance of this decision came in light of the continued military confrontations between the two parties and the high number of deaths and injuries. These decisions indicate Lieutenant General Al-Burhan's desire to clamp down on the Rapid Support Forces and influence their military capabilities by freezing their bank accounts. It is expected that the army commander, "Al-Burhan", will continue his escalation against the Rapid Support Forces by taking more decisions in an attempt to further restrict the Rapid Support Forces and push them towards stopping the military escalation against the army. It is also likely that the Sudanese authorities will intensify their measures to limit the sources of financing the Rapid Support Forces.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/746
The White House warned on May 4, 2023 that if the Republican opposition does not back down from its refusal to raise the public debt ceiling, the United States will witness an economic catastrophe if it falls into a state of default, and this will harm the local and global financial markets, and in this context the House urged The US House of Representatives agreed to cooperate to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling to spare the United States the repercussions of defaulting on its debt. The American debt crisis comes within the framework of the crisis facing many countries after the global economy was exposed to a number of major shocks. It is assumed that the Republican and Democratic parties reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling so as not to cause paralysis in the federal government. Also, failure to reach an agreement and leaving the federal government without financial cover may lead to a crisis at home in the United States, which will have negative consequences for the global economy.
To read the full article in Arabic, please follow the link: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/736
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