The statement made by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum 24th ministerial Meeting, which was held in Egypt during the period 23-25 October 2022, expressed deep concern about attempts to change the gas pricing mechanism, manage market performance risks, and impose price caps because of political motives. The statement stressed the importance of Capacity of Member States to independently plan for the management and development of sustainable natural gas resources.
The launching of the forum coincides with the European Union’s attempts to set a cap on the prices of natural gas imported by its members, with the aim of containing the rise in energy prices, which make it hinder the attempts to control high inflation rates. Escalation and tension in the relationship with European countries, including reducing the supply of natural gas in the global market, or redirecting gas to Asian countries, even if at preferential prices as a response to European gas prices cap.
To read the fill article in Arabic please visit: http://www.ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/683
The governor of the Blue Nile region, Ahmed Al-Omda, issued a decree on October 22, 2022, to impose a state of emergency throughout the region for 30 days the violence and tribal clashes was renewed, to enable the state to intervene to stop the tribal fighting and impose state control. The imposition of a state of emergency in Blue Nile State came due to the renewed armed tribal clashes between the Hausa and Inqasana tribes, which resulted in 199 deaths, the injury of 120 others, and the displacement of three thousand people; Due to the escalation of armed clashes between elements belonging to the two tribes in the "Wad Al-Mahi" area of the state since mid-October.
To read full article please visit: http://www.ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/678
On September 23, 2022, the Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, "Mohammed bin Salman" announced the launch of its Global Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (GSCRI), which aims to strengthen the Kingdom's position as a major center and a vital link in global supply chains, and enable it to achieve the ambitions and aspirations of its vision, which includes the development and diversification of resources The national economy, and enhancing economic ranking to be among the 15 largest economies in the world by 2030.
Saudi Arabia is working actively to implement regulatory and procedural reforms in various aspect within the framework of Vision 2030, which focuses on increasing reliance on the non-oil sector, as well as the increasing role of the private sector in supporting economic development. The focus on supporting logistics and the transport sector is one of the Kingdom's pillars to support global supply chains, especially since there are competing regional projects adopted by Iran, aiming to make Tehran a central transit area on the international transport corridors that cross the borders between the East and West.
To read the full article in Arabic please visit: http://www.ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/679
The Russian-Ukrainian war has entered a new escalation stage following a sudden strike of the Kerch bridge linking the Russian mainland and the Crimea, on October 8, through which it is estimated that 75% of the Russian army’s supplies pass, an incident that Moscow accuses the Ukrainian intelligence services of carrying out. Since then, planes have not calmed down over Ukrainian cities. Since October 10, Russia has launched large-scale missile attacks carried out by the armed forces of the Russian Federation on cities across Ukraine.
In a new escalatory move, Russia attacked Kyiv with nearly 30 Iranian Shahid suicide drones on the morning of Monday, 17 October.
On the ground, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that Russian forces bombed Ukrainian sites on several fronts on Sunday, including targets in cities in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions. Russian forces are trying to advance towards Bakhmut in the face of Ukrainian fighters in fierce battles in and around Donetsk. In his speech in the last hours, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that violent battles are currently taking place in the vicinity of the towns of Soledar and Bakhmut in the Donbass region.
To read full article in Arabic Please visit: http://www.ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/674
The results of the Italian legislative elections resulted in the right-wing coalition (consisting of three parties) controlling both houses of Parliament with 44% of voters which will lead to a drastic change in the balance of power to the Italian far right towards Giorgia Meloni, leader of the "Brothers of Italy" party, as her party made unexpected gains in Veneto. Friuli Venezia Giulia is the stronghold of the right-wing Lega Nord party led by its ally in the right-wing coalition Matteo Salvini, former deputy prime minister and interior minister from June 2018 to September 2019. Meloni is expected to receive a mandate from President Sergio Mattarella to form A government after October 13, which means it may take office by the end of next month.
Analysis:
In the right-wing coalition between Meloni's Brothers of Italy, Salvini's Lega Nord and Berconi's Forza Italia, the Brothers of Italy, a party with neo-fascist origins, won 26% of the vote, up from 4%. He had obtained it in the 2018 elections, while the "Lega Nord" received 8.8%, and this result is a collapse for a party that received in 2019 almost 40% of the vote. And the third member of the coalition is Forza Italia, led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who won 8.1% of the seats in the House of Representatives, a result worse than expected, as it got 17% in 2018. Thus, the right-wing coalition secures 237 seats in the House of Representatives out of 400. It also secures 115 seats out of 200 in the Senate.
Georgia Meloni and her party, which comes to power for the first time, will face a challenge in forming a government with its allies with different visions and previous experience in Government, whether Berlusconi, who became prime minister for the first time 28 years ago, or Salvini, the former interior minister, who was supposed to be the coalition leader had it not been for his disappointing results, which would limit his ability to claim important ministerial portfolios.
To read full article in English please visit: http://www.ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/663
On September 20, the Head of the Libyan Government of Stability, appointed by Parliament, Fathi Bashagha, announced his readiness to launch a "plan for peace, stability and prosperity" in Libya, during his meetings with the leaders of the city of "Benghazi" after his recent return from Turkey. Bashagha indicated that he discussed the features of his upcoming plan with a number of regional powers, pointing out that these parties showed readiness for joint support and cooperation.
Analysis
- Bahagia’s announcement of this anticipated plan for peace and stability comes in the light of intense movement of various internal parties, which can be detailed in the following points:
- The multiple visits made by the Speaker of the Libyan Parliament, "Aguila Saleh" in recent days, included Egypt, Turkey and Qatar, with reports that Saleh is preparing to pay a visit to Russia, in conjunction with indications indicating a "new initiative" that the Speaker of the Libyan Parliament is preparing to launch. During the coming period, it may reshape power balance in the Libyan scene.
- Several meetings are being held by the current Presidential Council, headed by "Mohamed Al-Minfi", in light of talks about the possibility of forming a new presidential council and forming a mini-government.
- There are indicators of growing mutual understanding between the House of Representatives and the state, which is reflected in the recent statements of Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh, during which he hinted that he had reached an agreement with the President of the State Council, Khaled Al-Mashri, on the constitutional base, and settling differences over the of the upcoming presidency. In addition, the current consensus between the two chambers was reflected in the recommendation sent by the State Council regarding the appointment of a new chief of the Supreme Court, to succeed its dismissed president, "Mohamed Al-Hafi."
To read the full article in Arabic please visit: http://www.ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/658
An attack has been carried out by AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) on the site of the Security Belt Forces affiliated to STC (the Southern Transitional Council) in Abyan Governorate, which lasted for about three hours, in which 21 Yemeni security troops and six members of Al-Qaeda were killed. The security forces also managed to capture a number of the organization's members.
This comes after Al-Qaeda had received strong military strikes during the period from 2016 to 2019 by Emirati forces and the forces of the Southern Transitional Council, whose head is Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, Vice President of the Yemeni Presidential Council.
Analysis:
The attack comes in light of several indicators that al-Qaeda is rebuilding its capabilities:
- Reports emerged from tribal sources in April 2022, according to which al-Qaeda elements began organizing operations to recruit dozens of young men in the districts of Mudiyah, Al-Wathi’ and al-Mahfad. The organization’s leaders also held meetings with young people in the mentioned areas for recruitment.
- Al-Qaeda released a video on Saturday showing a United Nations worker who was abducted in the war-torn country more than six months ago, the SITE Intelligence Group reported. The worker urged “the UN, the international community, the humanitarian organizations, to please come forward... and meet the demands of my captors,” without outlining the demands.
- In the previous incidents, Al-Qaeda used booby-trapped vehicles to penetrate the security procedures in the Yemeni army headquarters and then attack targets directly and indirectly. Skirmishes were taking place between al-Qaeda, counter-terrorism forces and Houthi units with small arms fire and poor explosive devices.
- The last incidents show tactical changes and evidence of new shifts in recruitment, training and planning appeared in the current attack. Al-Qaeda fighters ambushed the security STC, dealt with rocket-propelled grenades and light and medium weapons, maneuvered with vehicles, and managed to kill the commander of the anti-terrorism forces.
To Read the full in Arabic please visit: http://www.ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/657
On August 23, 2022, the Russian “Interfax” agency revealed that the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade has prepared a list of special economic zones located in 14 friendly countries, namely Iran, China, Mongolia, Vietnam, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, The UAE, Morocco, and Turkey, in which Russian companies can do business, in light of the sanctions imposed on Russia by unfriendly countries, and the difficulties in purchasing imported raw materials, components and equipment used by Russian manufacturers.
This list was compiled as a result of the Ministry's work with Russian trade missions abroad. Information about SEZs in friendly countries (95 potential sites) was collected, and information about sites abroad was transmitted to major Russian industrial companies and business associations by the end of July 2022.
Analysis:
- The Russian step comes within the framework of confronting attempts to isolate it and block its economic, because building Russian entities in the special economic zones of the aforementioned countries will allow them to obtain the production requirements and final goods needed by the Russian manufacturer and bypass the sanctions that restrict their import from the global market. At the same time, It can export what is produced from these factories to Russia or wherever they need.
To Read full article in Arabic please visit: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/631
The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court "Karim Khan" paid an official visit to Sudan during the period 20-25 August, with the aim of discussing the issue of the Sudanese authorities' handover of the ousted President Omar al-Bashir and two of his senior assistants: former Minister of Defense Abdul Rahim Muhammad Hussein, and Minister of State Ahmed Haroun who are accused of crimes against humanity in Darfur in 2003.
Analysis:
- The visit of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to Khartoum is of special importance, given that it is the second visit by him to Khartoum since August 2021, when a memorandum of understanding was signed with the former transitional government to exchange information and hand over suspects of war crimes and genocide.
- The escalating tribal and ethnic clashes in Darfur since the beginning of this year prompted the International Criminal Court to restore relation with Sudan, after these clashes caused the death and injury of thousands of people since the beginning of this year. The calls for the International Criminal Court to achieve justice also rose. Because the delay in investigations encouraged more violations within the Darfur region, which explains the visit of the ICC prosecutor to Darfur Camps for Displaced.
- This visit also comes within the framework of the pressure exerted by the international community on the military in Sudan to push it to hand over the rest of the wanted persons on the list of accusations and try them to bring justice to the victims of what the court considers “war crimes” that occurred in Darfur, especially after Ali Kushayb surrendered to the court.
- The court is also seeking, through the visit, to rebuild connections with the Sudanese transitional authorities, after the work of the investigation team of the court inside Sudan was interrupted; Because of the October 25 proceedings, which leaded the International Criminal Prosecutor’s submission of a report to the UN Security Council last January to inform him of the suspension of investigation activities after for insecurity and political instability in Sudan.
Expectations:
- It is expected that international pressure will continue on the Sudanese transitional authorities to take more security measures to prevent the renewal of armed clashes, maintain security and peace within the states of Darfur, and improve the conditions of the refugees there.
- It is expected that al-Bashir's handover to the International Criminal Court will be postponed, based on his deteriorating health condition on the one hand, and the resistance of some members of the military on the other hand, as a violation of the sovereignty of the Sudanese state on the other.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has begun a two-day visit to Turkey, where he will hold talks on unblocking grain exports from Ukraine.
At the heart of the negotiations is the opening of a security corridor for ships carrying Ukrainian grain. Turkey has offered to escort maritime convoys from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, which have been blocked by Moscow's offensive.
The visit also coincides with intensive preparations by the Turkish side to carry out a military operation inside Syrian territory against the Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces", as Turkey seeks to implement its idea of establishing a safe area 20 km deep inside Syrian territory to re-house nearly 1.5 million Syrian refugees. Therefore, Turkey is trying to ensure that there is no Russian opposition or Russian support for the Kurds during this operation.
To read full article in Arabic please visit: http://ncmes.org/ar/flash-analysis/572
Pages
Analytical articles
