Global Economic Prospects

Introduction

The World Bank published the Global Economic Prospects report[1] on June 7, 2022, which assesses current global economic conditions in light of the effects of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a particular focus on how stagflation is affecting emerging markets and developing economies.

The report discusses the global economic situation and re-evaluates some of its forecasts for global growth. The report focuses on five main points, the global context of the crisis, recent developments and prospects for major economies, developments and prospects for emerging markets and developing economies, global expectations and risks, and policy challenges. Then he moves to assess the repercussions of the crisis on different regions, including the Middle East and North Africa.

The global context of the crisis

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is exacerbating the global economic slowdown by imposing pressure on global supply chains, and rising prices for many commodities, which have implications on Global markets.

a. As for global trade, the World Bank lowered its forecast for global trade growth for 2022 from 5.8% in its previous forecast in January to 4% in its forecast in June, due to the continued impact of the pandemic on supply chains.

B. On the commodity markets, commodity prices rose in the first half of 2022, partly reflecting the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and following the broad-based rise that began in mid-2020. It is expected that energy prices will increase by 52% in 2022, agricultural products prices will increase by 18% and fertilizer prices will increase by approximately 70% in 2022, and metal prices will increase by 12% in 2022. It is expected that the prices of these products will decrease in 2023 with higher production elsewhere, but it will still be higher than previous forecasts.

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