Indications of clashes between militias affiliated with Dbeiba in Tripoli

On April 4, the Libyan capital, Tripoli, witnessed armed clashes between groups affiliated with the "Al-Nawasi" militia and others affiliated with the "Stability Support Apparatus " led by "Abdul-Ghani Al-Kikli" (known as Ghaniwa). Some local reports have monitored two deaths and five injuries as a result of these confrontations, which took place on Al-Suraim Street in the center of Tripoli.

Analysis:

-  The “Stability Support Apparatus” militia is organizationally affiliated with the Presidential Council, while the “Al-Nawasi Militia” is affiliated with the Ministry of Interior of the outgoing Government of National Unity. However, the recent period has witnessed intense moves by “Abdul Hamid al- Dbeiba” to strengthen his relations with “Abdul-Ghani al-Kikli,” the head of the militia of the “Stability Support Apparatus” to ensure the consolidation of its authority in Tripoli, and this may explain the agency’s announcement that the clashes that took place in Tripoli on April 4 are nothing more than “simple” disputes, in an attempt to calm the atmosphere and hint that there are no internal differences between the loyalists of Dbeiba.

-  it s noteworthy that "Abdul-Ghani al-Kikli" had assumed the leadership of the militias that gathered on the borders of the capital, Tripoli, on March 10, based on the instructions of Dbeiba, to prevent the head of the new Libyan government, "Fathi Bashagha" from entering Tripoli.

-  A report issued by the "Africa Intelligence" website indicated that despite the strong relations that link Dbeiba to "Al-Kakli", the latter still keeps the lines of communication open with "Bashaga", which makes the scenario of a change in the nature of the current alliances. It is standing strong, especially in light of the changes that have begun to occur in the position of the international and regional actors which tend to support the new Libyan government headed by "Fathi Bashagha".

Expectations:

- The recent clashes in Tripoli come within the framework of the usual confrontations between militias deployed in the Libyan capital, which are mainly related to the struggle for influence and resources.

- Tripoli is likely to witness a recurrence of these clashes in the coming period, in light of the fragility of the current alliances that Dbeiba relies on to maintain power, especially with the multiple reports indicating the existence of current talks between the new Libyan Prime Minister, "Fatehi Bashagha" and several leaders of armed groups in Tripoli trying to reach agreement , as well as there are some indications of possible changes in the Turkish position towards the Dbeiba, and Ankara's direction to support the "Bashaga" government, which could rearrange the map of militia alliances in Tripoli.